Tariff turmoil: Box demand dips, recession fears rise.

Paper and packaging manufacturers are at risk of taking downtime or closing facilities if a recession occurs, analysts say. Tariffs are looming large across manufacturing, and they appear to be affecting sentiment about paper and packaging demand, analysts say. Industry participants also are expressing concerns about the possibility of an economic downturn in the coming months.

Some demand shifts have been caused by customers attempting to stock up prior to tariffs and then slowing orders in recent weeks. Certain coated recycled board producers reported a slowdown in February and March after customers built up their inventories in January in a bid to avoid expected tariffs.

Prices heightened by tariffs are likely to further dampen consumer purchasing, leading to weaker demand for paper packaging. This could push down paper prices and prompt producers to take economic downtime to minimize further price degradation. In previous slowdowns, container board prices declined by an average of $50 per ton and boxboard prices declined approximately $30 to 70 per ton.

關稅動盪：紙箱需求下降，經濟衰退擔憂加劇。分析師表示，如果經濟衰退發生，紙張和包裝製造商將面臨停工或關閉工廠的風險。分析師表示，關稅對整個製造業的影響巨大，而且似乎影響了人們對紙張和包裝需求的情緒。業內人士也對未來幾個月經濟可能下滑表示擔憂。

一些需求變化是由於客戶試圖在關稅實施前囤貨，但在最近幾週放緩了訂單。某些塗佈再生紙板生產商報告稱，由於客戶為避免預期的關稅而在 1 月份增加了庫存，2 月和 3 月份的生產有所放緩。

關稅推高的價格可能會進一步抑制消費者購買，導致對紙包裝的需求減弱。這可能會壓低紙張價格，並促使生產商採取經濟停擺措施，以盡量減少價格進一步下跌。在先前的經濟放緩中，箱板紙價格平均每噸下跌 50 美元，箱板紙價格每噸下跌約 30 至 70 美元。

Source: www.packagingdive.com